000 AXNT20 KNHC 051032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W THEN ALONG 5N17W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N29W 1N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 19W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE SE CONUS INTO THE N GULF CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER SE GEORGIA THEN ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUING OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES CUBA NEAR HAVANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 26N E OF 84W TO ACROSS CUBA AND S FLORIDA. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N92W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N BETWEEN 93W-97W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE E THROUGH LATE WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA 21N85W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N45W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO COSTA RICA/ NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E ATLC ARE INDUCING A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RESULT A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N72W TO OVER COLOMBIA TO NEAR 11N73W. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE HAITI INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N TO OVER FAR E CUBA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THU. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS S AND SW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE SE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OVER SE GEORGIA THEN ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 29N80W 24N71W 23N64W TO 28N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE ABOVE FRONT N OF 28N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 29N W OF 51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 19N TO THE REMNANT FRONT BETWEEN 60W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 8N45W ALONG 22N38W TO BEYOND 32N23W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING ALONG 29N41W TO 28N47W WHERE IT LINKS TO THE REMNANT FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUD COVER WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE ATLC MOSTLY FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W- 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. 1005 MB LOW OVER SE GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE N THROUGH MON WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NE TO OUT OF THE W ATLC BY MON EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION AND INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AND TO NE OF THE AREA TUE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ PAW