000 AXNT20 KNHC 050551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W THEN ALONG 6N17W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W 2N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N E OF 20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA OVER FLORIDA NEAR GAINESVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA CONTINUING ALONG 24N84W TO NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N92W. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 92W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE E GULF BUT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SUN THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH LATE SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MON THROUGH WED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N45W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W TO 16N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 10N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BUILDS S AND SW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ALONG 27N75W TO 23N69W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW THAT AT 05/0300 UTC IS CENTERED INLAND OVER FLORIDA JUST W OF DAYTONA BEACH EXTENDING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 26N76W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 24N60W CONTINUING TO 25N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM MIAMI TO DAYTONA BEACH AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 60W. THIS SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N69W TO BEYOND 32N72W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 8N45W ALONG 24N30W TO BEYOND 32N25W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHS THAT EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO 27N57W AND FROM 28N41W TO 25N48W. DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUD COVER WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE ATLC MOSTLY FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 27W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N67W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N18W. THE 1008 MB LOW WILL DRIFT TO NE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND ACROSS SE GEORGIA SUN. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT N REACHING FROM NEAR 32N81W TO 26N70W SUN AND NE OF THE AREA BY LATE MON. THEN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE W AND CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N/CENTRAL ATLC LATE MON AND TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEROLOGICAL SERVICES OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. $$ PAW