000 AXNT20 KNHC 031803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS SW TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 1N30W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AT 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 7W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 23W-37W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS AT 30N101W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 30N90W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO AT 16N95W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF 21N W OF 94W. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO W CUBA AT 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA AT 28N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT THE GALE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AT 00Z. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT A 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW TO THE N BAHAMAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N82W TO THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS AT 16N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA APPROACHING HAITI. FURTHER S...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...10 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE SE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE CENTER TO 31N. A GALE IS ALSO N OF 28N W OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N48W TO 25N55W TO 22N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N20W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W. IN THE TROPICS... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 24N15W TO 20N60W. EXPECT THE GALE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AT 00Z. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA