000 AXNT20 KNHC 022345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG EQ24W 2S30W EQ36W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 7W-13W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COMPLICATED AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF ALONG 30N94W 25N98W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS NEAR THE FRONT FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 94W-95W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND ACROSS MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 97W-101W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS MEXICO. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N85W. THE LOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT TWO CLEAR SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND FROM THE CENTER BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO THE SW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N86W 20N89W. AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE NW ALONG 28N89W 32N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE UP TO 150 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W TO 27N82W. PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO FLOODING. ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. ONE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER FLORIDA MOST OF THE DAY. THE SECOND IS STILL INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN MEXICO SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE EAST AND THE FRONT IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH A GOOD PORTION OF THE MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... COMPARED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THE CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CALM. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER A FEW OF THE ISLANDS INCLUDING NORTHERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-89W AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EAST OF 64W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. LIGHT TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10 KT SPREADS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. SURFACE TROUGHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 75W. A SWATH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TOWARDS THE EAST AND AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N47W TO 27N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO 200 NM SE OF THE AXIS. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 51W-63W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE FRONT TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE NORTH ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST SUPPORTS A SECOND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 30N30W 26N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON