000 AXNT20 KNHC 021101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 2S26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 33W...TO 2N44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N57W NEAR SOUTHERN GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 49W AND 50W IN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...AND FROM 1S TO 6S BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA/SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 28N89W AND 26N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS INTO LOUISIANA. ONLY A FEW STATIONS ARE REPORTING FAIR SKIES AND/OR SCATTERED MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ELSE- WHERE IN TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KEIR AND KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KIPN AND KGVX. FAIR SKIES AND/OR SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE WEST OF A 30N91W 22N98W COLD FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH- TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA... AND ACROSS HONDURAS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN BELIZE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND ITS NEARBY ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTH- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N72W...TO 8N77W AND 8N81W IN PANAMA...INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 9N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... THE EARLIER STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN COLOMBIA AND HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG NOW IS FROM 6N TO THE MOSTLY PANAMA COAST/POSSIBLY SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA COAST...BETWEEN 80W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. CELLS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED IN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA NEAR 7N77.5W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 30N65W AND 30N71W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 31N67W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N67W TO 33N76W. A MEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 40N37W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 40N38W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER... CURVING THROUGH 32N32W TO 25N40W AND 22N46W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N38W 24N44W 22N47W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N25W AND 18N26W 5N25W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N22W 20N49W 20N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N60W 16N70W 14N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SURFACE TROUGH 30N80W 27N77W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT