000 AXNT20 KNHC 020605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 2S26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 33W...TO 2N44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N57W NEAR SOUTHERN GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 49W AND 50W IN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...AND FROM 1S TO 6S BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS A SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A SOUTH- EASTERN LOUISIANA 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... TO 22N89W 27N89W AND 25N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ALABAMA AND SOUTH- EASTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...LOW CLOUDS...LOW VISIBILITY...AND FOG IN THE AREA OF ANGLETON/ LAKE JACKSON AND BAY CITY IN TEXAS. FAIR SKIES AND/OR SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES AND/OR SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-HOUR FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE WEST OF A 30N92W 23N98W COLD FRONT. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH- TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA... AND ACROSS HONDURAS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA...AND COASTAL WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTH- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM WESTERN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N72W...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W...INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 11N88W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...IN COASTAL AREAS AND WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 31N74W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N70W. A MEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 39N38W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 39N39W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...CURVING THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N40W AND 24N45W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N38W 24N44W 22N47W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 25N27W AND 20N31W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W TO 13N68W 15N60W 16N53W 17N41W...BEYOND 21N25W... TOWARD AFRICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 30N35W 23N45W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT 40W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W 27N74W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT