000 AXNT20 KNHC 012316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 2N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 1N43W 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 1W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE BURST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 84W-91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 32N93W. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N92W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 29N90W 25N93W...AS OF 2100 UTC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER ALAMABA AND LOUISIANA. DRY AIR ALOFT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE EASTERLY 5-10 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF BY 48 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN IN ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER A FEW OF THE ISLANDS INCLUDING NORTHERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-18N EAST OF 65W. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15 KT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 79W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SPREAD INTO THE WEST ATLC TO 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO SINK SOUTH SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N74W 26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 58W-73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 38N38W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N34W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N39W 23N47W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO EITHER SIDE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON