000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W 5N16W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 2N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 1S33W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W... INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 3W AND 5W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 5W AND 10W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N25W 4N38W 4N42W 8N48W BETWEEN 25W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE BORDER AREA OF EAST TEXAS/ WESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 27N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N92W TO 22N90W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS THE SAME FEATURE THAT WAS IN CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING INLAND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF RAIN COVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHEE BAY. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX...KVBS...KGUL...KMYT...KEIR...AND KSPR. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KATP. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH- TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA... AND ACROSS HONDURAS. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W... AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 7N71W TO 6N75W...INTO PANAMA NEAR 8N82W...INTO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 10N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...AND ALONG THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N73W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 30N74W AND 29N74W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N76W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 31N40W AND 24N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N43W...TO 32N40W 27N43W AND 24N49W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N37W 28N40W 25N45W 22N50W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 78W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N68W TO 27N64W AND 20N59W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N27W AND 12N34W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N70W 15N60W 16N50W 20N40W 22N30W...BEYOND 23N23W... TOWARD AFRICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N40W 24N49W. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 46W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 37W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N...TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 29N70W TO 30N77W TO 30N80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT