000 AXNT20 KNHC 301116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N16W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO 1N29W AND 1N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N4W 2N6W 1N7W THE EQUATOR ALONG 7W...TO THE SOUTH OF 4N15W 4N20W 2N25W 2N32W 1N34W...TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W... AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W ALONG THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N3W 6N17W 7N42W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W...MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF WATERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA 2N85W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N90W 26N91W 25N91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF 90W TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. SOME OF THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHEASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG COVER THE REST OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LOW VISIBILITIES WITH FOG THAT WERE BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE BEEN LIFTING DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EVEN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE OBSERVED FROM SARASOTA SOUTHWARD. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ICAO STATIONS KHQI... KGUL...AND KGBK. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ICAO STATIONS KVBS AND KATP. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N52W TO 26N53W 21N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N49W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N48W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N48W TO 27N50W AND 26N52W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N52W TO 23N60W AND 23N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N46W TO 29N46W 24N58W TO 22N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A NORTH- TO-SOUTH LINE FROM MEXICO...THROUGH GUATEMALA... AND ACROSS HONDURAS. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN EASTERN GUATEMALA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W... AND FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA... TO 9N82W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA AND COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 3N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 20W AND 44W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N69W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N31W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 15W AND 45W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N61W 17N50W 21N41W 22N31W...BEYOND 21N25W... TOWARD AFRICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N47W 24N55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT