000 AXNT20 KNHC 292343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF GUINEA FROM 9N14W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 3N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG EQ24W 1N37W EQ51W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 8W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-40W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA...AS WELL AS INLAND TEXAS. THERE ARE NO DEFINITIVE SURFACE FEATURES SO MOST THE ACTIVITY IS CONNECTED TO A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY PRIMARILY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF HAS CLEAR SKIES AT THIS TIME. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 KT ARE PRESENT WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN IN WESTERLY FLOW. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER A FEW OF THE ISLANDS INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EAST OF 64W SOUTH OF 17N. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15 KT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A FEW 20 KT WINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC ALONG 70W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR 43N66W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INCLUDING FLORIDA. EAST OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 35N53W SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N53W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N53W 25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 300 NM EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 27N. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC INCLUDING THE TROPICAL EAST ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST BARELY INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 28N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE UP TO 200 NM TO THE EAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON