000
AXNT20 KNHC 291740
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N14W AND 
EXTENDS SW TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W TO 0N25W TO 
1N38W TO COASTAL BRAZIL AT 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 27W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 0S-2S BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 35N83W. A 1008 MB 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N101W. 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW 
IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WHERE 10-15 KT SE TO E FLOW IS NOTED. RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE 
GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 27N E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA S OF 26N E 
OF 84W. ALSO OF NOTE...SMOKE IS REPORTED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS NEAR 30N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE 
OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W 
GULF. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...                                  
              
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA 
AND NW VENEZUELA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 25N E OF 
62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 
THE COAST OF PANAMA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
JACKSONVILLE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N 
BETWEEN 76W-80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF BARBADOS S OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A 1013 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N54W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N49W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N26W TO 29N25W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS DUE TO 
A 1006 MB LOW OVER SPAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 90 KT 
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 24N17W TO 20N50W. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION E OF 
BARBADOS...AS WELL AS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA