000 AXNT20 KNHC 291112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 1S21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1S21W TO 4S25W AND 5S31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 1W AND 3W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS. PRECIPITATION IN TEXAS IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATER. THE WIND FLOW SPLIT IN DIRECTIONS NEAR 26N86W STARTING AT 28/1715 UTC. PART OF THE WIND FLOW MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA AS A RIDGE. THE OTHER PART OF THE WIND FLOW WAS NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THAT INCLUDES CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 22N92W 28N82W. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SOME STATIONS HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA NORTHEASTWARD. A VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA. VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF SARASOTA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ICAO STATIONS KGVX AND KGBK. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KHQI AND KGUL. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT ICAO STATION KIPN. FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 37N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N58W TO 24N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....TO 15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 40N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE COLD FRONT TO 27N59W AND 25N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N64W 27N58W...TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N64W 22N66W 19N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 15N76W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...AND BEYOND 84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 3N78W 7N73W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1005 MB SURFACE MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N40W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N27W TO 31N26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N49W. A SECOND 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N35W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N61W 15N62W 21N36W 22N30W 23N21W...BEYOND 23N16W AT THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 31N70W 8N55W 10N38W 31N45W 31N70W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES A 31N48W 25N55W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT