000 AXNT20 KNHC 271656 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 1W-3W...FROM 4N- 5N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR VERACRUZ TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 25N98W OVER TAMPICO TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH TUE. WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF N OF 26N ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 85W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W INCLUDING SW HAITI AND JAMAICA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N64W TO BEYOND 32N62W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXTENDING FROM 24N71W ALONG 21N70W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 36N37W WITH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N31W TO 22N42W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 6N/7N TO SOUTH AMERICA. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 50W-61W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THROUGH TUE BECOMING E-SE MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW