000 AXNT20 KNHC 262344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N33W 2N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 2W-6W...AND FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 15W-17W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE AROUND THE RIDGE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG 22N97W TO 18N94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE UP TO 60 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SPILLS OVER INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ALONG 60W INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE BASIN. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS AREA OF MOIST CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS MAY DRIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS FOCUSED NORTH OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG 68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N74W 30N81W. THE FRONT IS MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST ALONG 32N68W TO 28N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 64W-67W. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH ALONG 27N69W TO 20N67W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 60W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS CONTINUING INTO THE AREA ALONG 58W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 36N33W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N33W 24N43W 26N49W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO EITHER SIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N22W 25N26W 19N34W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON