000 AXNT20 KNHC 261706 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W ALONG 9N18W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W 5N35W TO 3N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 6W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE N GULF COAST AND THE SE CONUS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A REMNANT DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA TO THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE RIO GRANDE NEAR 26N99W INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN COATZACOALCOS AND CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SW OVER N GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO E PANAMA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N71W TO 19N84W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DIPS INTO THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH 32N73W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WHERE A DYING STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 28N68W ALONG 23N67W TO 19N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 35N32W WITH A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N32W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E TO 31N27W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 25N34W 24N42W TO 26N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E AND S OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N23W ALONG 22N28W 18N37W TO 19N51W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG FROM 10N13W 10N36W THEN SW INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-60W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM 32N70W TO NE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW