000 AXNT20 KNHC 242332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC TO 1N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO BRAZIL ALONG 2S20W 4S31W 7S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-7W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 16W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SKIMMING THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION NEAR LOUISIANA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW CORNER. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TOWARDS MEXICO ALONG 26N94W 23N98W CONTINUING INTO MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ALONG 24N95W TO 20N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 90 NM EAST...AND 200 NM WEST OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. NORTHEAST WIND OF 20-25 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE FRONT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF AROUND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLC. CLEAR SKIES STILL COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF WITH SURFACE TROUGHING REMAINING. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS IN THE SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN. THE DRY AIR IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE POPPED UP OVER JAMAICA...SOUTHERN CUBA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-68W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG 32N67W TO 26N72W AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH ALONG 27N70W TO 21N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS A BIT TO THE EAST BETWEEN 62W-66W NORTH OF 21N. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1043 HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 46N48W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 56W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS IMPACTED BY A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N32W AND A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 37N34W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N26W 26N30W 21N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N31W TO 28N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS WITH NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 37W-40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON