000 AXNT20 KNHC 200527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N33W 2N43W 2S48W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 38W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN. IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NE CORNER OF FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO THE SW GULF ALONG 25N87W 21N91W 17N92W...AS OF 0300 UTC. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 250 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF THE AXIS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE SW GULF. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A CENTER SOUTH OF MEXICO WITH AXIS CONTINUING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING IS ALSO BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SE GULF ALSO SPREADS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 61W-68W. GUADELOUPE HAS REPORTED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF MAINLY 20 KT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N80W TO 29N81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BOTH THE WEST...CENTRAL...AND EVEN THE EASTERN ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 41N49W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 34N59W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM NEAR 21N69W TO HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY BE SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N61W TO 23N63W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W TO 22N54W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N36W TO 29N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 37W-46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON