000 AXNT20 KNHC 191803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W AND 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N24W TO 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W... FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 39W AND 42W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT STILL IS INLAND AND IT REACHES NORTHEASTERN TEXAS NOW. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N90W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM APALACHEE BAY BY FLORIDA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...TO THE MEXICO COAST AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N93W BEYOND 30N90W. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES. THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND TEXAS ARE COVERED BY MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA BETWEEN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIXTURE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE OIL PLATFORM SITES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE GALE WARNING. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N88W 25N92W 22N98W. GALE-FORCE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 94W TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N. THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH 14N IS COVERED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FLOWING TOWARD THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-15N58W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N58W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE IS 2.07 INCHES... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BEEN PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N67W 16N76W 14N83W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND TO 16N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 7N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG REMAINS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W...IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS COMPARATIVELY STRONGER...NUMEROUS STRONG... AT 19/0915 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ALSO EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W AND 24N45W...TO 20N50W...AND TO 15N58W...TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N36W 29N39W 28N42W 24N46W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS SPILLING OVER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N59W 23N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N67W 28N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W AND 16N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. THE 36 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 26N38W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT