000 AXNT20 KNHC 161759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO 5N18W AND 2N22W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 36W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 6W AND 10W...ACROSS PARTS OF THE IVORY COAST AND LIBERIA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 90W TO THE NORTH OF 21N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF 90W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM INTERIOR MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD. THEY CROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ACCOMPANY THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KBBF AND KGVX...THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO COVER THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF 86W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES. FAIR SKIES COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LOWER ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGUL AND KMYT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ICAO STATIONS KBBF...KGVX...KGBK...KSPR...AND KHQI. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 9N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N77W... TO 15N82W...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS RIDGE IS NOT IN PHASE WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO 90W RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR CURACAO FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC IS 0.46 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM COLOMBIA INTO EASTERN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ALSO EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 25N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W...TO 30N70W AND 30N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THE SAME 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 29N76W AND 28N81W IN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 30W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR BERMUDA FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC IS 0.23 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N32W AND 26N50W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 22N51W...16N52W AND TO 10N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W... TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N32W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N52W...TO 26N67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...FROM 16N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT