000
AXNT20 KNHC 161042
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 
03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
03N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 09W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                             
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
THIS MORNING AS MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES 
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 
10 TO 20 KT AS CAPTURED BY A RECENT 16/0340 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE W OF 90W DUE TO A 
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE HEELS OF DEVELOPING LOW 
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE 
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 12N80W AND COTNINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE AND DRY 
CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. TRADES 
PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT 
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-
78W...AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EMBED ITSELF WITHIN 
LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 
30N67W TO 25N74W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 31N 
BETWEEN 59W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE 
FRONT...A 1018 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N74W THAT CONTINUES TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD. A 
MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER 
TO 29N77W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA 
PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLC REMAIN TRANQUIL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N51W. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 27N40W TO ANOTHER 
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN