000
AXNT20 KNHC 141042
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N06W TO 
04N07W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N07W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN 
AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N96W TO A BASE NEAR 23N102W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED EAST OF THE GULF BASIN OVER THE SW 
NORTH ATLC REGION ALONG 72W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE 
GULF NEAR 26N82W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD ALONG 26N83W TO 28N90W 
WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO 28N93W AND INTO A 1006 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING 
DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER 
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-94W. THE 
CONVECTION IS LARGELY A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 
IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...CYCLOGENESIS AND THE RESULTANT 
LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY WITH A 
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST ALONG 30N/31N. THEREAFTER 
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA 
COAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                        
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR INDICATES DRY AIR 
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR STABLE 
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADES PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR 
CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS 
GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-78W...AND IN CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 72W. 
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N78W THEN BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 27N80W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 66W-74W WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. FARTHER EAST...UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT DRAPES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N26W TO 30N43W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N52W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 28N TO 26W AND 
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN