000 AXNT20 KNHC 140544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 05W TO 05N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 32N100W TO A BASE NEAR 23N104W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED EAST OF THE GULF BASIN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ALONG 77W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N82W AND MEANDERS WESTWARD ALONG 25N84W TO 26N91W TO THE NE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-95W. THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD BY LATE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST ALONG 30N/31N. THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR INDICATES DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADES PERSIST UNDER THESE FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-78W...AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM ALONG 76W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N80W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 66W-75W WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT DRAPES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N34W TO 31N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N49W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N TO 22W AND THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN