000 AXNT20 KNHC 131035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 3N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 2N23W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AT 13/0900 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 25N83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W AND 30 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF 32N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NW GULF. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 88W. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF SAT AND SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN CABO CRUZ AND CIENFUEGOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N65W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N63W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 69W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AT 13/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 60W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 23N54W THEN S TO 10N57W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N65W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N63W. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N58W TO 21N66W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND MOST OF THE E ATLC AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 10N24W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N54W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N74W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY THIS EVENING THEN STALL FROM 32N61W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE INTO MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW