000 AXNT20 KNHC 130539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N17W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N16W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE TO JUST N OF TAMPA THEN ALONG 25N85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N OF 32N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE NW GULF. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 89W. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF SAT AND SUN WHILE WEAKENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND HAITI ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER HAITI/GULF OF GONAVE AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN CABO CRUZ TO TUNAS DE ZAZA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N61W ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 16N62W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 64W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N74W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 77W TO THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 25N55W THEN S TO 11N62W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC AND MOST OF THE E ATLC AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 10N26W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N61W ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN WITH A 1024 MB HIGH E-SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N61W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NE OF THE MERIDA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA SAT AND FROM 32N7OW TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SUN MORNING THEN WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW