000 AXNT20 KNHC 121755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N24W 1N28W AND 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...AND TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 6W AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W... FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 16N AND 26W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL INLAND... FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BEYOND MISSOURI. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN TEXAS/MEXICO AND 83W/84W. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA- TO-WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE INLAND TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AREA TO 26N87W 23N90W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO MEXICO NEAR 18N96W...AND 22N100W IN MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 82W INLAND AND 88W IN THE GULF WATERS. IT IS RAINING IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN KINGSVILLE AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. A FEW STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA ARE REPORTING FEW HIGH CLOUDS. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND THE TAMPA- ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA AREA. PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 30N85W 19N95W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET AFTER ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W...TO 11N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA NEAR 22N81W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N58W TO 13N59W TO TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA... TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF 17N82W 15N72W 11N64W. THE CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. ALSO EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 27N19W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 27N19W 31N37W AND 31N42W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 24N49W 24N61W AND 26N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W...AND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N14W 26N26W 25N43W 24N56W...TO 30N. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N60W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 29N45W 26N63W TROUGH BETWEEN 48W AND 65W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 29N32W... TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N49W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N62W...TO 27N72W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE 30 HOUR FORECAST INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT