000 AXNT20 KNHC 120537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N15W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 6W-10W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W- 27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 2N35W TO 4N45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE PLAIN STATES IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER THEN ALONG 25N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 20N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N88W TO INLAND OVER SE CONUS NEAR 30N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 23N88W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 16N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SKIES ARE CLEARING WEST OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N TO CUBA E OF 82W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF SAT AND SUN. A FRONTAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF MON AND TUE WITH MAINLY A SOUTHERLY FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER PANAMA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 16N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COVERING THE FAR W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N BETWEEN 40W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N18W ALONG 26N35W TO 24N59W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE DISSIPATING FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS W OF MERIDA ISLANDS NEAR 33N23W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW