000 AXNT20 KNHC 111041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG N ALONG 88W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W AND CONTINUES S ALONG 26N96W THEN RACES S BEFORE TURNING W INTO MEXICO N OF TAMPICO NEAR 24N98W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA/TEXAS N OF 27N W OF 93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E AND S OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING FROM NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING THEN FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO FRI EVENING AS W PORTION OF FRONT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO DRIFT N. THE FRONT TO THEN STALL FROM JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO UPPER NE MEXICO LATE SAT DRIFTING N INTO NW GULF WATERS ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N98W ACROSS HAITI AND PORTIONS OF CUBA TO 21N81W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N E OF 66W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N W OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH E-SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N60W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE SE CONUS NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W ALONG 27N34W TO 26N43W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY TO 24N51 THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N28W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW