000 AXNT20 KNHC 110541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 1N32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG N ALONG 89W IS SHIFTING E AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AND CONTINUES S ACROSS THE NW GULF THEN INTO MEXICO JUST S OF THE TEXAS BORDER. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 94W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS RETREATING EASTWARD COVERING THE FAR E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF 25N ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF CUBA E OF 84W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THEN STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF SAT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE N GULF ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HAITI/THE GULF OF GONAVE AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N E OF 65W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 14N W OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH E-SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W TO 26N41W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS ALONG 25N50W TO 24N57W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW