000
AXNT20 KNHC 101736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA THROUGH THE COAST OF 
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 5N18W. 
THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W EQ37W 3S46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 26W-34W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM 
4Q-EQ BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY AIR...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC AND POURS OVER INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL. DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE BASIN HAS INCREASED SUPPORTING 15-25 KT SOUTHEAST 
WINDS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. 
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER 
TEXAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF LATE 
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
EXPECTED ALONG THE AXIS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY 
AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE 
BESIDES A FEW AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 
CUBA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT SPREADS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS REACHING 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WEST ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND 
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 32N60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 57W. 
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 
32N30W AND CONTINUES TO 26N46W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 
25N51W 22N59W AND DISSIPATES TO 22N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC 
IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N16W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER 
RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR EAST ATLC AND WESTERN AFRICA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON