000 AXNT20 KNHC 100521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W 1N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 4N20W TO 2N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N. A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W N TO OVER THE E CONUS OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE N GULF COAST TO SE LOUISIANA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAKENING LATE WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT REACHING MOBILE BAY TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THEN STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE SW GULF SAT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE W COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COASTLINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-75W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W ALONG 27N45W TO 23N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N60W TO 22N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N68W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N22W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC LATE FRI SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW