000 AXNT20 KNHC 090513 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W CONTINUING TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 85W FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE E CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOIST UPPER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO BETWEEN THE LOUISIANA BORDER AND TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED THEN WEAKENING LATE WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO THU FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THEN STALLING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE W CENTRAL GULF SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. REMNANT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA... CUBA...AND JAMAICA HAVE DRIFTED SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE COASTLINES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N E OF 66W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 45W-75W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W TO 25N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N63W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/95 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC NW OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N32W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE N WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER THROUGH TUE THEN DISSIPATING ON WED. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW PORTION LATE FRI SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD N OF 27N THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW