000 AXNT20 KNHC 081031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W CONTINUING ALONG 7N18W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 17W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MAINTAINING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE W GULF LATE TODAY THROUGH WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO TUXPAN MEXICO THU MORNING THEN FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. REMNANT SHOWERS OVER HAITI HAVE DRIFTED W OVER THE SW PENINSULA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND BECOME FRESH TO STRONG COVERING THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT MON THROUGH THU THEN WEAKENING FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N53W ALONG 27N58W TO 24N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N54W TO BEYOND 32N33W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N37W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N22W TO 23N20W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N37W. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT N WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOMING SE TO S ACROSS W PORTIONS WED THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW