000 AXNT20 KNHC 080506 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W CONTINUING ALONG 5N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR 23W. THE ENTIRE ITCZ IS S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING OVER THE W GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENTER THE NW GULF LATE WED NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO THU MORNING AND FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN APPROACHING NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ALONG 83W FROM 11N-18N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA HAVE MOVED W TO ALONG THE COASTS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT MON THROUGH THU THEN WEAKENING FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N55W ALONG 28N58W TO 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY N OF HAITI NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 28N65W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N55W TO BEYOND 32N37W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N40W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 26N-31W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE N WHILE WEAKENING MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW