000 AXNT20 KNHC 061749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 05N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 19W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ABOVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WHICH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY STABLE AIR ALOFT...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W S-SW TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N94W WITH MOSTLY E-NE WINDS EAST OF THE AXIS AND SE WINDS WEST OF THE AXIS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PROLONGED SE WINDS FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. THIS WILL OCCUR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N75W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN VIA EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT 10 TO 15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE FRONT...E-SE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSIST EAST OF 76W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY WITH TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N75W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 22N78W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N74W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND AN AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-74W. IN ADDITION...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM 30N69W TO 22N72W. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED NEAR THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N40W. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGING FROM 32N30W TO 28N36W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN