000 AXNT20 KNHC 051045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N15W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES BRIEFLY S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W- 27W THEN ALONG 1N33W THEN AGAIN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-16W AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-10W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 16W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E CONUS ACROSS THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 05/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1009 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA JUST N OF GAINSVILLE ALONG 24N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N88W TO THE NW CORNER OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N-27N E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 27N E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND SHIFT EASTWARD SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 65W/66W FROM 15N-18N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND DISSIPATING ON SUN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUN AND EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN LATE MON THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT FURTHER ENHANCING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 78W ALONG 31N80W TO THE 1009 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM NE OF BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 10N FROM 40W-60W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W TO 27N54W THEN DISSIPATES TO 26N58W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDING IT EXTENDING FROM 27N51W TO 25N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING ALONG 58W FROM 14N-21N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 56W-61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MONRING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N77W TO W CUBA THIS EVENING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING AND FROM 32N62W ALONG 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SUN EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS LATE SAT AND TRACK NE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS W OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW