000 AXNT20 KNHC 050544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N15W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-21W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM OVER THE E CONUS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 05/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1011 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE ALONG 25N87W TO OVER THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N90W TO 18N93W. A SQUALL LINE WITHIN HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 24N86W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN 24N-28N. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N BELIZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE N GULF N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 96W. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT EASTWARD SAT AND SUN AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N BELIZE AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AT 05/0600 UTC ALONG 64W FROM 15N-18N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-66W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING DISSIPATING OVER THROUGH THE DAY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE SUN AND EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN LATE MON THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM NE OF BERMUDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 10N FROM 25W-60W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W TO 26N57W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDING IT EXTENDING FROM 27N52W TO 25N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 56W/57W FROM 14N-19N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N33W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N77W TO A LOW 1009 MB NEAR 30.5N77W TO 29N81W FRI MORNING AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT MORNING. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC LATE SAT AND TRACK NE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD W OVER THE W ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW