000
AXNT20 KNHC 042358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT THU APR 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 1N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N17W TO 
1N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-19W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 25W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 
31N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
ALONG 23N90W 19N92W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE TO THE W ATLANTIC 
TO BEYOND 33N77W. THE E GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA  
... AND MOST OF FLORIDA ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. S FLORIDA PRESENTLY HAS A TORNADO 
WATCH IN EFFECT. E OF THE FRONT 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE W GULF 
W OF 90W. THE E GULF HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THAT IS ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BELIZE WITH 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

PREFRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
EXTENDS FROM W HONDURAS TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N AND E OF 
64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OVER N COLOMBIA 
...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN 
HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE W CARIBBEAN ...AND CUBA. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER 
PRODUCER. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N 
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N47W TO 25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N35W MOVING E. A GALE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF 
PORTUGAL NEAR 36N12W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 
N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN 
ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA