000 AXNT20 KNHC 011731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N23W 3N28W 3N33W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N33W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N42W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ- 1N BETWEEN 7W-21W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY NEAR 87W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N83W TO 27N90W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE AXIS OVER FLORIDA AS WELL AS SE OF THE AXIS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT RANGING FROM 5-10 KT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS ACROSS THE SE GULF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE WEST ATLC. SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECT TO DRIFT EAST MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEST ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SE RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 78W. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE FLOWS AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS REACH 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK WHEN THE GRADIENT DECREASES AS SURFACE PRESSURES LOWER TO THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL THEN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 32N75W TO 27N79W ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR JUST EAST OF IT. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N62W. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING TO 26N50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 25N56W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EAST OR SOUTH OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND INTO THE EASTERN ATLC WHERE IT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 17N24W. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N9W TO 27N20W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N29W. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO REMAINS LONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE REACHING UP TO 150 KT BETWEEN THE CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON