000 AXNT20 KNHC 010003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N15W 10N17W 6N20W 3N23W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 3N23W TO 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W... TO 2S46W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 8W AND 19W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N75W AND 20N76W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N79W...AND TO 15N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N65W TO 29N74W... TO 28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. FOR THE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE TEXAS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD...AND POSSIBLY NOT REACH THE AREA OF THE OIL PLATFORM SITES. ICAO STATIONS KEIR AND KSPR ARE REPORTING CEILINGS...7500 FEET FOR KEIR AND 9000 FEET FOR KSPR. ICAO STATION KMYT IS REPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 3000 FEET. ICAO STATION KIPN IS REPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 6000 FEET. FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE FOR THE SITES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS FROM MATAMOROS MEXICO TO BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL IN TEXAS. THE REST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS HAS FAIR SKIES. FALFURRIAS TEXAS IS REPORTING AN OVERCAST CEILING OF 6500 FEET. THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS HAS FAIR SKIES. PORT LAVACA TEXAS HAS AN OVERCAST CEILING AT 3400 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THE MOMENT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...INLAND IN TEXAS AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE LAND AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS TO THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA. TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA IS REPORTING DRIZZLE. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO... ULTIMATELY IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N75W AND 20N76W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N79W...AND TO 15N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N77W-TO-15N80W CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS AND ITS BORDER WITH NICARAGUA TO 18N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...IN MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS INCLUDES COVERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS... FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N58W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 29N55W AND 27N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 29N47W 27N52W AND 26N62W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N23W 26N30W AND 22N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N43W TO 20N50W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N50W TO 19N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W 25N30W 20N50W 18N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N63W 15N68W AND 18N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N51W AND 12N60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N65W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER BEYOND BERMUDA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 29N74W...TO 28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N93W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W 28N35W TO 26N53W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH 31N51W 27N60W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH TO 56W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 50W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT