000 AXNT20 KNHC 311041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N19W 4N18W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 0N23W 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-25W...FROM THE ITCZ TO 4N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE N GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 84W-89W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W GULF TUE AND WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH S INTO THE N GULF WED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WED AND MOVE TO NEAR 28N87W LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM SE CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E ATLC IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 61W-70W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N32W TO 22N44W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 19N54W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 19N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-68W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 20N27W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON EVENING THEN SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS W ATLC N OF 29N MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE W OF 75W THU AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW