000
AXNT20 KNHC 302015 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N17W TO 2N20W 
TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 1S47W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 20W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                            
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF ADVECTING 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. A 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N75W. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW 
OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AND EXTEND FROM 
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC IS 
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS  
ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN 
ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W TO HISOANIOLA AT 18N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. REMNANT 
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A PORTION OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA AT 18N73W TO 
JAMAOCA TO E HONDURAS AT 15N86W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON 
AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 
1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS SW TO 25N40W TO 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER 
THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED 
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N21W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT 
WILL SWEEP PAST NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF