000
AXNT20 KNHC 301104 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N16W TO 5N18W WHERE THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 3N22W 1N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                            
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE 
W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED 
BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE GULF NEAR 28N84W AND A 1026 MB HIGH IN 
THE W ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF 
COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA 
BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC IS 
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS  
ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN 
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 13N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM 
OF LINE FROM 16N79W TO OVER SW HAITI AND FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 
79W-84W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER 
PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS 
SLOWLY EASTWARD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N77W AND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N43W 21N54W TO 17N62W 
WHERE A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM 
THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N24W. W 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE THEN 
SHIFT EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP PAST NORTHERN WATERS TUE 
AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW