000 AXNT20 KNHC 300610 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N18W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 2N30W 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS. ONE HIGH IS IN THE GULF OFF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WHILE THE SECOND IS IN THE W ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE N GULF TUE MORNING AND WILL EXTEND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO TUE NIGHT THEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO SW HAITI. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUING WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 19N77W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N84W INCLUDING JAMAICA. SIMILARLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS. ONE IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N76W WHILE THE SECOND IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 47W-65W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS ALONG 2N48W 19N56W TO 18N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W-72W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE E ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N25W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC LATE TUE AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW