000 AXNT20 KNHC 291115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N16W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W TO 1S26W AND 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N14W. SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF FROM 3N TO 2S BETWEEN 17W AND 50W IN COASTAL BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N67W AND 25N74W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT THE SLOWLY- MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N50W 20N62W...TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W. A SHEAR AXIS FOR WIND SPEED CONTINUES FROM 18N71W...CURVING TO 17N75W AND 14N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N10W 35N20W 3430W 30N43W 26N50W 22N60W 20N69W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N76W... TO 17N82W AND 14N84W IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 14N76W AND 9N80W AT THE COAST OF PANAMA. THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THAT PART OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THAT PART OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N87W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 19N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WIND THAT WAS BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... ICAO STATION KBBF...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST... IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET. ICAO STATION KGVX...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST... IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 3200 FEET. ICAO STATION KGBK IS OBSERVING A CEILING AT 4700 FEET. ICAO STATION KECH HAS A SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY AT 3800 FEET. ICAO STATION KMYT... ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 3700 FEET. ICAO STATION KVBS...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 3300 FEET. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THIS AREA. NO STATION IS REPORTING SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS. SOME OF THE STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS ARE REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS CLOSE TO 6000 FEET ARE...MATAMOROS IN MEXICO...AND EDINBURG AND WESLACO IN TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR 6000 FEET ARE OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE VISIBILITY OF BAY CITY TEXAS IS ABOUT 1 MILE WITH FOG. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST BETWEEN THE MIDDLE GULF COAST AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. FAIR SKIES ARE ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. PERRY FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES. PATTERSON LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1.75 MILES. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE 28/1200 UTC ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH TIME. IT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N55W TO 17N57W...TO 13N60W TO 12N62W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 74W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIGINATES IN NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N66W TO 14N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOTW WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N54W 19N37W BEYOND 32N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 23N69W...ACROSS ABACO ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE 1027 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N87W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N7W IN MOROCCO... ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N26W...TO 23N36W AND 19N58W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N36W 19N68W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W. SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ARE TO THE WEST OF 48W...AND RANGING FROM 9 TO 15 FEET ARE TO THE EAST OF 48W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 29N55W 15N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT