000 AXNT20 KNHC 281759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 2N14W EQ20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM EQ21W TO EQ25W EQ33W 2S42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1S TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 17W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SW ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL AS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 94W AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS AND ALL THE WAY DOWN ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO TO THE CITY OF VERACRUZ. METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED HAZE AND FOG AND SATELLITE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 95W. THESE RAINSHOWERS COULD BE ENHANCED BY WATER VAPOR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ASSISTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW E OF 90W. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALABAMA DISPLACES TO NE TENNESSEE. NO VARIATIONS IN WIND MAGNITUDE ARE EXPECTED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN HAITI NEAR 18N72W TO 16N75W 15N79W TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. WEST OF THE SHEARLINE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER JAMAICA WHERE RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WHERE HAZE WAS OBSERVED. SATELLITE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE SHEARLINE ALL THE WAY TO 84W FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT SPREAD E OF THE SHEARLINE S OF 16N W OF 74W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST WHERE LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO HAZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTLINE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SHEARLINE HAS DETACHED FROM THE COLD FRONT AND OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE IT WEAKENS. ALSO WITHIN THIS PERIOD WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLIES AND WILL AUGMENT IN MAGNITUDE UP TO APPROXIMATELY 25 KT DUE TO AN INCREMENT IN PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE W ATLC ALONG 30N44W 24N53W TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT N OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 11N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 25N25W.OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WHILE THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR