000 AXNT20 KNHC 261110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 5N18W 2N27W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 3W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 11W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 41N63W. ANY PART OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 41N63W CYCLONIC CENTER...SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W...AFTER PASSING OVER BERMUDA... TO 28N70W...THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG 19N83W 15N86W IN EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N81W 20N84W 17N87W 16N88W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N IN GENERAL. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A TEXAS 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N97W...THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST SITES. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER MANY OF THE OTHER PLATFORM SITES. ICAO STATION KGBK IS REPORTING LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR THE WIND AND SEAS INFORMATION FOR THIS AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO TAMPA FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM NAPLES TO TAMPA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 87W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...ACROSS JAMAICA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N67W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N45W... TO 21N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2.... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 23N80W 19N88W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 28N30W AND 25N36W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N40W 25N30W BEYOND 32N13W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N8W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N21W...TO 23N33W... TO A SECOND 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N45W...TO 21N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N65W 23N79W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 55W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS BETWEEN 41W AND 60W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT