000 AXNT20 KNHC 260604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 2N18W 2N24W AND 1N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W... ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 40N68W. ANY PART OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 40N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N86W 21N84W 22N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N79W 26N70W 28N60W BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 21N82W 18N85W...INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN HONDURAS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N IN GENERAL. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A TEXAS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N97W...THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... ICAO STATION KGVX ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST IS REPORTING SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER REPORTING BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS. ICAO STATION KBBF...ALSO ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...IS REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. ICAO STATIONS KGBK AND KHQI ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. ICAO STATION KCRH...OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. OTHER STATIONS ARE REPORTING 15 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS OR SO. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. REYNOSA MEXICO...MCALLEN AND EDINBURG IN TEXAS ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO NAPLES FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM 23N80W TO 20N88W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO 95W...THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE COMPARATIVELY THE HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...ACROSS JAMAICA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N69W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 82W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N75W. THE PRECIPITATION WAS COMPARATIVELY STRONGER IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 23N80W 20N88W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 13.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N30W AND 25N39W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N54W TO 21N70W...CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N19W...TO 19N38W 17N50W...AND TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE 25N57W 20N84W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 26N35W 24N41W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 41W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 41W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N69W 23N80W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT