000 AXNT20 KNHC 252349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N16W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES NEAR 38N78W. WHILE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIE NORTH OF 33N OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W THEN SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE FRONT EXITS THE BASIN...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E OF 96W THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W THAT ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 16N87W TO THE COLD FRONT NEAR 21N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER WIND SPEEDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-75W. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INTRODUCING STRONG N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES NEAR 38N78W. THIS LOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N71W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 65W-71W. WEST OF THE FRONT...STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOTED GENERALLY N OF 28N THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N46W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 38N24W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N27W TO 24N41W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF TH EASTERN ATLC WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN