000 AXNT20 KNHC 251106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 2N18W 2N24W AND 1N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W... ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANY PART OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER ULTIMATELY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS CONNECTED TO THE 31N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 26N82W 23N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. PLEASE REFERENCE THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2... AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING THAT IS FORECAST IN ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KGVX OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. FAIR SKIES OR NO REPORTS ARE AT THE OTHER TEXAS GULF COAST PLATFORM SITES. ICAO STATION KMDJ THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE SITES THAT ARE FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE OTHER PLATFORMS. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...IN HARLINGEN... BROWNSVILLE...AND IN PORT ISABEL. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT ISABEL HAVE BEEN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. EDINBURG...WESLACO...AND MCALLEN SHOW CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED AT THE STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. CLEAR SKIES ALSO ARE IN THE REST OF THE GULF COAST PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION AND AT MARATHON KEY...AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA AREA AIRPORTS. CLEAR SKIES ARE REPORTED AT THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL STATIONS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 26N82W 19N93W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT... AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 14N83W 20N77W BEYOND 20N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N54W TO 21N70W... CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2....AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FRONT 23N81W 19N87W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N80W...CONTINUING TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 28N TO 29N...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 18N97W IN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N70W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA...TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N28W AND 19N29W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N40W AND 20N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ANY PRECIPITATION IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N31W 27N38W 23N46W 20N48W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N54W TO 21N70W...CROSSING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N19W...TO 19N38W 17N50W...AND TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE 25N57W 20N84W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30N35W 21N52W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 55W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N80W 28N81W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT