000 AXNT20 KNHC 242343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 02N21W TO 02N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N26W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH WESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 37N89W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 30N89W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W SW TO 24N90W TO 20N95W. MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 26N-28N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY N-NE WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST BY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AND STABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING. SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR AS TRADES PERSIST E OF 78W MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHERLY W OF 78W ON THE WEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHERE THEREAFTER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN USHERING IN N-NE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 31N68W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N57W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 34N47W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 21N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FINALLY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN